Accurate estimations set you on the right track
Calculating the right sales forecasts and anticipating the future is a mix of science and art. At LECA we are convinced that the best sales forecasts are the result of a data-driven process combined with powerful decision models and the right knowledge of the market. Assessing product value in a simplistic way could have negative implications, such as missing out on market opportunities
Applying the right knowledge and methodology becomes crucial
Forecasting often involves facing complex challenges
A high-volume of fast-changing data
Dealing with massive datasets requires optimized tools and methodologies
Lack of information
Reimbursement status, price, indications, physicians' opinions of the product or other launches by competitiors are all factors which need to be taken into consideration when forecasting
Finding the right analogues
We apply the best forecasting techniques, but often a quantitative approach alone is not enough. We identify and analyze the most similar analogues to predict what could happen to your product
Conflicts of interest
Our experience helps us align the interests of HQ and its subsidiaries, as their forecast figures may differ
A comprehensive toolkit of methodologies
From dynamic patient modeling to top-down and bottom-up approaches, we understand and combine models to check consistency, reconcile figures and improve forecasts
Building future scenarios
Evaluate the sensitivity of your forecasts, and build probabilistic scenarios using Montecarlo simulations
What LECA brings to the table
A committment to treat every project as unique. Every problem requires a unique solution, and we will not cut corners when looking for the right one
Ample experience no matter the lifecycle stage of the product (launch, growth, mature or loss of exclusivity) or its therapy area
Customized methodologies based on your product profile, and the capacity to allocate and consolidate forecasts from your subsidiaries or territories
Deep understanding of the data sources available, their caveats and how to maximize their value efficiently